THE STUDY OF THE RAILWAY INFRASTRUCTURE DYNAMICS OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTH-WEST FEDERAL DISTRICT AS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR OF REGIONAL MARKET GROWTH
Abstract
The article investigates the development of railway infrastructure and its relationship with the general development of the regions of the North-West Federal District (NWFD) through the use of trend analysis and medium-term dynamics forecast. The volume of Gross Regional Product (GRP) per 1 km of railways is used in the study as an indicator reflecting the relationship of railway infrastructure with the level of regional development. The two main trends in the development of this indicator revealed during the research are: linear and nonlinear (exponential). The linear trend is observed in the Komi Republic, Arkhangelsk, Kaliningrad, Leningrad, Novgorod and Pskov regions; nonlinear – in the Republic of Karelia, Vologda and Murmansk regions, as well as in St. Petersburg. The regions included in the NWFD were divided into three groups according to the growth rate of the studied indicator: regions with ultra-high GRP growth per 1 km of railways, regions with high GRP growth per 1 km of railways and regions with average growth. As a result of combining the two criteria applied to the indicator of the volume of GRP per 1 km of railways, the regions of the North-West Federal District were divided into three groups: with an uneven and very high growth of the volume of GRP per 1 km of railways – St. Petersburg; with a high nonlinear growth of the indicator – the Republic of Karelia, Vologda and Murmansk regions; with an average linear growth of the indicator – the Republic of Komi, Arkhangelsk, Kaliningrad, Leningrad, Novgorod, Pskov regions. Depending on the nature of the development of the studied indicator, both quantitative and qualitative reconstruction of the railway infrastructure can be implemented in order to develop the regional market.
