PROBLEMS OF FORECASTING INDICATORS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE MUNICIPALITY

Abstract

The need to rethink, clarify and adjust the existing strategic planning document – Forecast of long-term socio-economic development of municipal formation city district «the City of Komsomolsk-on-Amur» for the period up to 2032 has determined the relevance of the study and also identified the need to build economic and mathematical models on the basis of which, under current legislation, performed budget forecasting development of the municipality in the long term. This goal is also relevant for the development of recommendations to improve the system of strategic planning of the municipality. Based on this goal, the following tasks of the study are determined: to analyze the interdependence of socio-economic indicators of the municipality and to develop a forecast model of socio-economic development of the municipality (on the example of the city district «Komsomolsk-on-Amur»). The article reveals the correlation between the values of macroeconomic indicators of socio-economic development of the municipality – the city district «Komsomolsk-on-Amur». On the basis of correlation analysis, the indicators that showed a high degree of mutual consistency in the change of signs were selected. Regression analysis on the basis of which developed a linear model of multiple regression, which includes industrial output, investment in fixed capital, number of employed in economy (annual average). The interpretation of the model is performed. Its quality was checked. The significance of the multiple regression equation is estimated using Fisher’s criterion. The third premise of the least squares method – the absence of a systematic relationship between the values of the random component in the observations is verified. To calculate the forecast values of the industrial production volume on the basis of extrapolation methods, the expected values of exogenous variables are found: «Investment in fixed capital» (power function), «Number of employees in the economy» (polynom of the second degree). Directions of improvement of forecasting system indicators are offered. According to the results of the developed forecasts, it is possible to clarify the program activities and priorities of social and economic development. When calculating the forecast values, such formalized methods using time series elements as regression analysis and trend extrapolation were used as the main ones.