DYNAMIC ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL OPERATING MODEL OF FINANCIAL FLOWS OF A COAL PRODUCER

Аннотация

Given the challenging conditions of sanctions and uncertain external economic environment, it is essential for coal producers to project their economic health in the short and long term. This purpose requires to have forecast tools with respect to the development of an enterprise and its future financial flows under various initial conditions and the impact of negative external environment factors. This study aimed to develop a tool for dynamic assessment of financial flows of a coal producer in form of an economic and mathematical operating model. The framing methods for this model are based on the cash flow pattern of an enterprise, including proceeds from the sale of products, receivables, payables and production costs, as well as loan repayments. The model accounts for the time value of money and is dynamic, as it allows to estimate the balance of cash flows for several periods (months, quarters, years) ahead. The dynamic model is based on the assessment of the input financial parameters of a coal producer, the determination of the rules of cash flow management, the calculation of the changes in cash flows for the period concerned and the calculation of the financial parameters of a coal producer at the end of the period under consideration. The model allows to estimate the financial flows of a coal producer for several future periods with different input data. The dynamic model allows to assess the financial condition of a coal producer against the background of the changing financial flow management rules in conditions of uncertainty and Western and US sanctions. The application of the model in planning the performance of coal producers will optimize financial flows and create an effective plan of the enterprises’ activities in complex and unstable economic conditions. The proposed model may be further developed to clarify and account for disrupting factors and to computerize dynamic modeling.

Keywords: coal producers, dynamic model, operating financial flows, discounting, dynamic modeling.

References

Bayborodova L.V., Chernyavskaya A.P. Metodologiya i metody nauchnogo issledovaniya: ucheb. posobie dlya bakalavriata i magistratury [Methodology and methods of scientific research: textbook. manual for undergraduate and graduate studies]. M.: Yurayt, 2019. 221 p. (In Russ.).

Burenok V.M., Lyapunov V.M., Mudrov V.I. Teoriya i praktika planirovaniya i upravleniya razvitiem vooruzheniya [Theory and practice of planning and managing the development of weapons]. : Armaments, politics, conversion, 2004. 419 p. (In Russ.).

Ruiga I.R., Zyubanova T.V. Vneshnie i vnutrennie faktory, vozdejstvuyushchie na razvitie ugol'noj promyshlennosti Rossii [External and internal factors influencing the development of the coal industry in Russia] // Mezhdunarodnyj nauchnyj zhurnal “innovacionnaya nauka” [International scientific journal "innovative science"]. Vol. 1(11). Pp. 147-151. (In Russ.).

Bakhtizin A.R., Nizamutdinov M.M., Oreshnikov V.V. Podhod k resheniyu problemy upravleniya strategicheskim razvitiem regiona s ispol'zovaniem adaptivno-imitacionnoj modeli [Approach to solving the problem of managing the strategic development of the region using an adaptive-simulation model] // Vestnik of Saint Petersburg University. Applied Mathematics. Computer Science. Control Processes. 2019. Vol. 15(3). Pp. 362-374. (In Russ.).

Cifrovaya shahta: Vorkutaugol' prodolzhaet cifrovuyu transformaciyu [Digital mine: Vorkutaugol continues its digital transformation] // Elektronnyj al'manah. Upravlenie proizvodstvom [Electronic Almanac. Production management]. 2020. Vol. 1. Pp.16-22. (In Russ.).

Sinoviev V.V., Kuznetsov I.S., Starodubov A.N. Studies into man-machine control of dump trucks as part of excavator-and-truck complex using simulation modeling // Ugol’. Vol. 7. Pp. 9-12. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.18796/0041-5790-2021-7-9-12

Tsivileva A.E., Golubev S.S. Mul'tiplikativnyj ekonomicheskij i social'nyj effekt deyatel'nosti territorij operezhayushchego social'no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Respubliki Saha (YAkutiya) [Multiplicative economic and social effect of the territories of advanced socio-economic development of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)] // Ugol’. Vol. 11. Pp. 33-37. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.18796/0041-5790-2021-11-33-37

Tsivileva A.E. Upravlenie razvitiem tekhnologicheskogo potenciala ugledobyvayushchej kompanii [Management of development of technological potential of a coal mining company]. : YOUR FORMAT, 2022. 224 p. (In Russ.).

About the Authors

Anna E. Tsivileva – Cand. Sci. (Economics); Chairman of the Board of Directors, Kolmar Group JSC, Moscow, Russia. E-mail: office@kolmar.ru. SPIN РИНЦ 1216-7385. ORCID 0000-0002-3205-2046

Sergey S. Golubev – Dr. Sci. (Economics), Professor; Head of department of Centr All-Russian Research Institute, Moscow, Russia; Professor, Kutafin Moscow State Law University, Moscow, Russia. E-mail: sergei.golubev56@mail.ru. SPIN РИНЦ 6313-4466. ORCID 0000-0001-8745-6235. ResearcherID AAT-1089-2020. Scopus Author ID 57194392281

For citation: Tsivileva A.Ye., Golubev S.S. Dynamic Economic and Mathematical Operating Model of Financial Flows of a Coal Producer // BENEFICIUM. 2023. № 3(48). С. 28-35. DOI: 10.34680/BENEFICIUM.2023.3(48).28-35